By Prof. Dr./ Khaled Abd El-Kader Ouda
Professor Emeritus of Stratigraphy and Paleontology, Geology
Department
Faculty of Science, Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt
This
study aims at evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively the
importance of the risks to which the Egyptian coasts— a distance of
about 3500 km—are exposed, as a result of rising sea level in
amounts up to one meter. It also suggests traditional and
non-traditional ways of defense, that may help to avoid or reduce
these risks, or to adapt to them. The results of this study
about climate change and its impact on the Egyptian coasts will be a
significant resource to researchers, experts and decision makers
working at private institutions and in public administrations, to
plan strategies in order to organize plans for the protection of the
Nile Delta and other parts of the Egyptian coast as sea level rises.
The study examines the causes and consequences of the global warming
as described in reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change; and their Fourth Assessment Report as well as in subsequent
scientific reports by various research groups worldwide. It also
examines the impact of global warming on the level of seas and
oceans and the potential risks for the Middle East and North Africa,
as contained in the report of the scientific team of the World Bank,
2007.
The study considers successively 1) the topography and
geomorphology of the Nile Delta ; 2) the impacts on the Nile Delta
during the last century of the combined effects of a) severe coastal
erosion processes, b) sediment deficiency since the construction of
the Aswan high Dam, c) sea level rise, d) delta subsidence as well
as e) human impacts on the coastline; 3) the present geomorphology
of the northern lakes of the Nile Delta after having been suffered
from intensive human impacts which have led to drying and reduction
in surface area by about 50% -83% of their original size during the
last 25 years; 4) the various scenarios of the impact of sea level
rise on these coasts. This discussion ends with an illustration
of the risks on the Egyptian coasts on topographic maps designated
for all coasts beaches and shores using Digital Elevation Data
derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SRTM NASA space.
The impact that sea level rise of up to one meter is expected to
have is illustrated graphically on various coasts: the Northwest
Delta (West of Rosetta Branch), the North Delta (between the two
Nile branches), the Northeast Delta (East of Damietta Branch); the
shores of Alexandria, From Abu Qir east to Agami west; the shores
of the coastal plain of the northern Western Desert from Alexandria
east to Sallum west; the shores of the northern coastal plain of
Sinai Peninsula, the western and eastern coasts of the Gulf of Suez,
the western coast of the Gulf of Aqaba , the Egyptian coast of the
Red Sea from Hurghada north to Halaib south, and the coasts of the
Bitter Lakes and Temsah Lake along the Suez Canal.
The topographical maps of all coasts were matched with satellite
images to evaluate quantitatively the size of the area that, for
each coast, will be affected by sea level rise. The sources of
threat were identified for each coastal region, along shores, sandy
belts, eastern and western bridges of the western branch of the Nile
(Rosetta Branch, North of Fowa), eastern bridge of the eastern
branch of the Nile (Damietta Branch, north of Damietta), and western
bridge of the Suez Canal (north of Ballah). The low-lying coastal
areas, wet and dry, which are threatened of marine invasion either
directly from the sea or indirectly through the northern lakes, and
the areas where subsurface leakage may occur as a consequence of
sea-level rise have been delineated and measured. They are also
graphically represented on both topographic maps and corresponding
satellite images. Cities, neighborhoods, villages, ranches and
agricultural land that are threatened of isolation as a result of
marine invasion have been determined with great detail. The
environmental problems that plague the Nile Delta because of
uncontrolled human activities, and which, associated with climate
impacts contribute to make the Nile Delta potentially one of the
coastal areas in the world most threatened by the rise in global sea
level during this century are also discussed
The study includes 734 colored plates among which detailed
topographic, geomorphologic and geographic maps of coasts and
beaches of Egypt as they are today, and as they are expected to
become with rising sea levels; The sources of threat, the new shore
line expected due to sea
level rise and
the dimensions of the threatened wet and dry lands are graphically
represented on satellite images downloaded electronically on the
topographical maps. Means of protection are proposed and locations
of deep seawalls, sandy dams and bridges are suggested as well as
land barriers to be set aside to counter the invasion of the sea
off the coast of the Nile Delta. It is understood that these
proposals may be suitably modified by experts in order to reduce the
costs associated with coastal protection as long as efficiency and
benefits are not lost.
The topography,
geomorphology and geology of the Qattara Depression, are described
with the hope to revive the proposal of connecting the Qattara
Depression to the Mediterranean Sea to reduce the effects of sea
level rise on the Nile Delta while creating a positive economic
return. The national need to implement the Qattara -Mediterranean
project has been emphasized in order to save billions of Dollars
that will be lost as a result of the marine invasion of the northern
coast of the Nile Delta. All earlier objections encountered in the
implementation of this project have been refuted. An economic
feasibility of this project has also been proposed in light of the
new economic innovations. It is also proposed the most appropriate
places from the standpoint of topography to create a surface channel
between the Mediterranean and Qattara Depression. The view is
expressed of the need to restore a natural balance to the River
Nile. That balance was lost after the construction of the High Dam
at Aswan. The negative effects of the High Dam on the Egyptian Delta
must be assessed
and work must be immediately undertaken to remedy them for the
benefit of future generations.
Download the powepoint file
Download the pictures
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